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2023 El Niño may lead to the least active Hurricane season the South since 2020

El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, where the waters of the eastern Pacific are warmer than normal.

In the Atlantic, El Niño typically leads to fewer hurricanes. This is largely due to increased vertical wind shear and more stability in the atmosphere. Wind shear is not good for the development or the sustaining of hurricanes as it rips them apart and a more stable atmosphere prevents the lift required for these storms.

Based on new data, it’s likely that South Louisiana will experience an El Niño pattern for a good chunk of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. El Niño usually leads to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic due to increased wind shear and atmospheric stability, which are unfavorable conditions for hurricane development and sustainability.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announcement of the end of La Niña, with El Niño on the way. Hopefully, after years of hurricanes in the south, this will lead to a less active Atlantic hurricane season but will result in a more active Pacific season, as well as a potential spike in global temperatures. El Niño is associated with warm ocean water in the central and eastern Pacific, impacting weather patterns worldwide. NOAA predicts El Niño to form in summer 2023 and persist through fall. This transition could significantly influence hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Pacific, with El Niño reducing Atlantic activity and increasing Pacific activity. The warming ocean’s impact on global temperatures and heat waves is also a concern.

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